Building resilience through diversity
The following article was published in the Marlborough Express on May 2nd, 2026.
Wine is in a slump globally and locally.
According to the International Organisation of Vine and Wine, global wine consumption stagnated in 2008 and has declined since 2017, falling 12.84% by 2024. New Zealand exports also dropped 6.28%, from a peak of 2.85 million litres in 2021 to 2.67 million litres in 2024. At the same time, a generational shift is reshaping the market: older drinkers are consuming less since the COVID-19 pandemic, while Millennials and Gen Z are becoming the main buyers, placing greater emphasis on sustainability, alcohol content and wine quality.
Regionally, this market decline comes at an interesting inflection point for viticulture and wine production in Marlborough. Many vineyards planted during the boom of the early 2000’s are ready to be replanted and many of the people who developed those vineyards are ready to retire. There has been growing chatter around what to do with this land - does it go back into grapes or do we plant something else? Many locals remember when a greater array of crops were grown here, with some calling on Marlborough District Council to develop a Local Food Strategy to encourage a return to more diverse agricultural production.
Over the last few years I’ve led several projects exploring land use, diversification and climate change adaptation in the province. Interestingly there is strong alignment between consumer sustainability desires, and what the wine industry and local community envisions for the future. Diversification is a clever strategy to reduce risk and increase resilience, especially when faced with increased climatic and market variability. Here diversification means to vary what you grow or produce (biological diversification), where you grow it (geographical diversification) and how it's grown (the scale of diversification).
As part of my PhD I worked with wine industry stakeholders to identify regional climate challenges, define climate change related threats and opportunities, and envisage diversification solutions. Key threats included more frequent and severe extreme weather events, growing pressure on water availability and quality, potential salinity from sea level rise, increased pest and disease risks, and concerns about maintaining the distinctive style of Marlborough Sauvignon Blanc as conditions change. At the same time, growers saw an opportunity to rethink how vineyards are designed and managed, including adopting new technologies, exploring different grape varieties, and considering alternative crops. Diversification solutions ranged from shorter-term actions, such as cover cropping, improving soil health, and increasing biodiversity, to longer-term strategies like diversifying plant material (clones, rootstocks, and varieties), exploring new vineyard sites or sub-regions, and integrating other crops to build resilience and new income streams. Overall, diversification was viewed as a practical pathway to create more adaptable and resilient vineyard systems in the region.
Another project aimed to identify a shared vision for land use in the region. This project explored the visions various communities in Marlborough have for land use, how to develop pathways to transition to a diversified shared landscape, and to identify the key connections and relationships that need to be established to facilitate collaborative regional change. While there was no single vision for land use and diversification in Marlborough, there was a strong shared desire to increase native biodiversity and agricultural diversity, and to restore and conserve the landscape for future generations. There was shared concern over how the place has changed due to agricultural intensification and specialisation, and housing developments. To achieve a shared vision regional efforts need to be facilitated in a way that addresses barriers to partnership. The principles and processes adopted in the Te Hoiere Pelorus Catchment Restoration Project are overcoming these barriers, and have led to successful land use change and diversification. Learning from successful projects like this can guide future initiatives, where multiple partners (Iwi, community groups, regional government, and local business) need to be brought together to create change.
Our region isn't alone in this challenge. Manawatū, Taranaki and Northland councils are all leading programmes of work to support land use diversification within their regions as a risk reduction and economic stimulation strategy. Their efforts to drive change do not stop at the farmgate, they extend to supporting the development of businesses that can add value to the produce from these new systems. This is similar to what we do in Marlborough - by making wine from grapes, we create a value added product and more jobs in the process.
So is it time to call it quits on the Marlborough wine experiment? Probably not, according to New Zealand Winegrowers in 2025 sales of New Zealand wines priced at $15 or more increased 14.4% in the United States, significantly outpacing the modest 0.8% gain recorded by wines priced below $15. With Sauvignon Blanc still comprising the vast majority of all wine exported. This is bang on trend with growing demand for higher quality wines. However, it might be a good time to think about how we can make our region more resilient by increasing diversity. We need to consider what the region's climate will look like in the future, considering options that will perform across a range of conditions. All while making space for nature, reducing resource consumption, improving community food resilience and adding value to what is produced here. Then we need to go and tell the world about it.
Dr Michelle Barry is the founder of Éiceo a natural capital, land use and climate solutions agency based in Marlborough. She has spent the last decade working in the wine industry as a researcher, grower, wine company founder and director.
Contact:
Michelle Barry
michelle@eiceo.earth
